Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July (view source)

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 Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
-* Wages on line with estimates on June, with a 0.3 m/m increase, in line with the average increase of the past few quarters.
+* Wage growth hasd a soft report on July reaching 3.6%, getting to the levels close to pre pandemic.
-* Gasoline had a declined of -4.12% m/m, while oil had an increase of 3.2% m/m. However, gasoline has a higher weight in CPI.
+* Gasoline had another declined of -3.15% m/m, while oil had an increase of 7.5% m/m. Gasoline has a higher weight in CPI.
-* Food index was unchaged during the month.
+* Food index declined -0.2% m/m in July
-* Supply chain index remains stable.
-* Housing prices increased 1.17% m/m during June, reaching 6.29% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.4% m/m, down 0.7% y/y.
-* Used car prices continue to decline in June being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices increased 0.5% m/m.
-* Import prices had a decline of 0.6% m/m in June 2024, and is still up now 1% y/y
-The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting on september.
+* Supply chain index remains stable. However, shipping rates remain elevated due to middle east conflicts.
+* Housing prices increased 0.9% m/m during July, remains ~6% Y/Y. Rents increased by 0.2% m/m, down 0.8% y/y.
+* Used car prices increased 2.8% m/m on July (-4.8% Y/Y), while new car average transaction prices decline during the month (final numbers not available yet)/.
+* Import prices remained unchanged duriung June, and 1.58% Y/Y.
+The markets is currently pricing 100 bps of cuts in 2024.
+[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 104010.png|center|thumb|673x673px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]]
 ''Range:''
-* CPI: 3.0% - 3.2%
+* CPI: 2.8% - 3.1%
-* Core CPI: 3.3% - 3.5%
+* Core CPI: 3.0% - 3.4%
 {| class="wikitable"
@@ Line 22: / Line 24: @@
 |'''Probability by Magaly'''
 |-
-|CPI below 3.0%
+|CPI below 2.8%
-|3%+ rally
+|2%+ rally
 |5%
 |-
-|CPI at 3.0%
+|CPI at 2.8%
-|2% Rally
+|1.5% Rally
 |30%
 |-
@@ Line 34: / Line 36: @@
 |50%
 |-
-|CPI at 3.2%
+|CPI at 3.0%
-|1-2% drop
+|1% drop
 |10%
 |-
-|CPI above 3.2%
+|CPI above 3.1%
-|3% drop
+|2% drop
 |5%
 |}