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Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions
→Upcoming CPI expectations
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== Upcoming CPI expectations == | == Upcoming CPI expectations == | ||
January 12h 2023 inflation forecast is expecting a significant decline in inflation compared to last month, continuing with the trend we have seen in recent months | January 12h 2023 inflation forecast is expecting a significant decline in inflation compared to last month, continuing with the trend we have seen in recent months and in line with short term inflation drivers pointing to an inflation rate moderating. However the level will remain high enough to not allow the FED to change its narrative of more rate hikes needed. | ||
At the moment, 78% of the market is pricing 0.25 bps rate hike in February meeting. | At the moment, 78% of the market is pricing 0.25 bps rate hike in February meeting. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | ||
Range: | Range: | ||
* CPI: 6.4% - 6.7% | |||
* Core CPI: 5.6% - 5.9% | |||
If <6.4% could see a rally 5% | |||
if >6.7% could see a drop 5% | |||
=== Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> === | === Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> === | ||