3,882
edits
Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions
→Upcoming CPI expectations
| Line 4: | Line 4: | ||
At the moment, 78% of the market is pricing 0.25 bps rate hike in February meeting. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | At the moment, 78% of the market is pricing 0.25 bps rate hike in February meeting. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | ||
Range: | ''Range:'' | ||
* CPI: 6.4% - 6.7% | * CPI: 6.4% - 6.7% | ||
* Core CPI: 5.6% - 5.9% | * Core CPI: 5.6% - 5.9% | ||
If <6.4% could see a rally | If <6.4% could see a rally 4% | ||
if >6.7% could see a drop | if >6.7% could see a drop 4% | ||
=== Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> === | === Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> === | ||
| Line 60: | Line 60: | ||
|0.48 | |0.48 | ||
|} | |} | ||
=== JPM Forecast<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-10/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-sees-cpi-bolstering-bear-market-rally</ref> === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''CPI Reading''' | |||
|'''Probability''' | |||
|'''S&P 500 reaction''' | |||
|- | |||
|> 6.6% | |||
|15% | |||
|Down 2.5% to 3% | |||
|- | |||
|6.4% - 6.6% | |||
|65% | |||
|Up 1.5% to 2% | |||
|- | |||
|< 6.4% | |||
|20% | |||
|Up 3% to 3.5% | |||
|} | |||
==Historical CPI Releases== | ==Historical CPI Releases== | ||