Automotive Industry:Europe

See also: Automotive Industry | Automotive Industry: Current State of EV Sales | Volkswagen

Contribution

• 13.0 million Europeans work in the auto industry (directly and indirectly), accounting for 7% of all EU jobs
• 11.5% of EU manufacturing jobs – some 3.4 million – are in the automotive sector
• Motor vehicles are responsible for €374.6 billion of tax revenue for governments across key European markets
• The automobile industry generates a trade surplus of €79.5 billion for the European Union •
• The turnover generated by the auto industry represents almost 8% of the EU’s GDP
• Investing €58.8 billion in R&D per year, automotive is Europe's largest private contributor to innovation, accounting for 32% of the EU total

Production

Passenger Cars

https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-production/

	2019	2020	2021	2022	% change 22/21
Germany	4,493,922	3,393,960	2,946,320	3,336,116	+13.2
Spain	2,175,909	1,759,907	1,598,986	1,702,641	+6.5
Czech Republic	1,398,996	1,129,429	1,095,096	1,190,160	+8.7
Slovakia	1,072,858	943,746	976,947	964,072	-1.3
France	1,590,636	869,856	852,812	940,690	+10.3
Romania	490,412	438,107	420,755	507,269	+20.6
Italy	548,688	455,323	447,673	476,929	+6.5
Hungary	524,348	433,601	416,843	441,776	+6.0
Sweden	285,709	245,671	253,488	257,446	+1.6
Belgium	247,020	237,075	222,105	235,385	+6.0
EUROPEAN UNION	14,096,444	10,779,146	10,055,833	10,769,893	+7.1

2022

	2022	2021	% change 22/21	% share 2022
EUROPE	13,142,901	13,362,109	-1.6	19.3
European Union	10,769,893	10,055,833	+7.1	15.8
United Kingdom	764,854	853,584	-10.4	1.1
Russia	437,633	1,343,911	-67.4	0.6
Turkey	791,522	788,233	+0.4	1.2
Ukraine	1,490	7,342	-79.7	0.002
Others: Europe	377,509	313,206	+20.5	0.6

New Car Registrations

Historical releases: New Car Registrations Europe: 2023

https://www.acea.auto/files/Economic-and-Market-Report_Full-year-2022.pdf

	2019	2020	2021	2022	% change 22/21
Germany	3,607,258	2,622,132	2,622,132	2,651,357	+1.1
France	2,214,279	1,650,118	1,659,003	1,529,035	-7.8
Italy	1,916,949	1,381,756	1,458,032	1,316,702	-9.7
Spain	1,258,251	851,210	859,477	813,396	-5.4
EUROPEAN UNION	13,028,948	9,939,418	9,700,089	9,255,926	-4.6

September 2024

In September 2024, new EU car registrations continued their downward trajectory (-6.1%) with negative results across three of the region’s four major markets: France (-11.1%) and Italy (-10.7%), with the German market declining by 7%. On the other hand, Spain experienced a healthy rebound (+6.3%).

Nine months into 2024, new car registrations remained stable (+0.6%) and almost reached 8 million units. Spain (+4.7%) and Italy (+2.1%) showed positive performances, while the French and the German car markets declined (-1.8% and ‑1%, respectively).

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	% change 24/23
France	28,266	30,173	-6.3	10,077	15,699	-35.8	53,169	38,461	+38.2	3,381	5,785	-41.6	36,047	52,915	-31.9	8,062	13,270	-39.2	139,002	156,303	-11.1
Germany	34,479	31,714	+8.7	14,936	15,383	-2.9	60,497	57,795	+4.7	812	731	+11.1	67,009	78,979	-15.2	31,115	39,900	-22.0	208,848	224,502	-7.0
Italy	6,422	4,941	+30.0	4,102	5,422	-24.3	53,264	53,780	-1.0	11,302	11,006	+2.7	31,072	40,503	-23.3	15,563	20,703	-24.8	121,725	136,355	-10.7
Spain	6,329	3,726	+69.9	4,063	4,931	-17.6	29,905	23,580	+26.8	2,906	1,705	+70.4	23,484	26,287	-10.7	6,457	8,574	-24.7	73,144	68,803	+6.3
EUROPEAN UNION	139,702	127,196	+9.8	54,889	70,669	-22.3	265,724	236,107	+12.5	23,635	24,458	-3.4	240,805	293,143	-17.9	84,408	110,400	-23.5	809,163	861,973	-6.1
EFTA	17,354	14,884	+16.6	1,946	2,869	-32.2	7,207	6,342	+13.6	5	2	+150.0	5,302	6,885	-23.0	1,867	2,072	-9.9	33,681	33,054	+1.9
United Kingdom	56,387	45,323	+24.4	24,486	18,535	+32.1	104,237	93,393	+11.6	0	0		83,100	105,463	-21.2	7,029	9,896	-29.0	275,239	272,610	+1.0
EU + EFTA + UK	213,443	187,403	+13.9	81,321	92,073	-11.7	377,168	335,842	+12.3	23,640	24,460	-3.4	329,207	405,491	-18.8	93,304	122,368	-23.8	1,118,083	1,167,637	-4.2

Year to date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2023	% change 24/23
France	216,841	204,616	+6.0	99,100	116,446	-14.9	412,705	303,617	+35.9	47,196	52,063	-9.3	394,264	482,010	-18.2	95,796	129,872	-26.2	1,265,902	1,288,624	-1.8
Germany	276,390	387,289	-28.6	132,861	123,345	+7.7	545,301	490,855	+11.1	10,975	11,364	-3.4	770,999	750,386	+2.7	379,548	374,827	+1.3	2,116,074	2,138,066	-1.0
Italy	48,217	45,761	+5.4	39,902	52,626	-24.2	474,282	420,445	+12.8	114,209	106,646	+7.1	356,672	335,512	+6.3	169,165	216,350	-21.8	1,202,447	1,177,340	+2.1
Spain	37,994	34,607	+9.8	42,231	45,120	-6.4	276,867	220,669	+25.5	23,616	17,220	+37.1	289,049	301,581	-4.2	74,941	92,186	-18.7	744,698	711,383	+4.7
EUROPEAN UNION	1,047,869	1,111,925	-5.8	550,166	598,366	-8.1	2,404,532	2,002,816	+20.1	248,093	238,240	+4.1	2,744,809	2,872,408	-4.4	994,307	1,117,949	-11.1	7,989,776	7,941,704	+0.6
EFTA	115,425	121,721	-5.2	19,106	24,360	-21.6	64,766	58,169	+11.3	29	68	-57.4	55,419	65,912	-15.9	20,990	22,008	-4.6	275,735	292,238	-5.6
United Kingdom	269,931	238,544	+13.2	124,943	98,993	+26.2	538,935	461,739	+16.7	0	0		537,037	595,946	-9.9	43,248	56,686	-23.7	1,514,094	1,451,908	+4.3
EU + EFTA + UK	1,433,225	1,472,190	-2.6	694,215	721,719	-3.8	3,008,233	2,522,724	+19.2	248,122	238,308	+4.1	3,337,265	3,534,266	-5.6	1,058,545	1,196,643	-11.5	9,779,605	9,685,850	+1.0

August 2024

In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%) with negative results across the region’s four major markets: double-digit losses were witnessed in Germany (-27.8%), France (-24.3%), and Italy (-13.4%), with the Spanish market declining by 6.5%.

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL				DIESEL			TOTAL
	August 2024	August 2023	% change 24/23	August 2024	August 2023	% change 24/23	August 2024	August 2023	% change 24/23	August 2024	August 2023	% change 24/23	August 2024	August 2023		% change 24/23	August 2024	August 2023	% change 24/23	August 2024	August 2023	% change 24/23
France	13,143	19,657	-33.1	6,164	9,527	-35.3	30,559	27,166	+12.5	3,149	4,290	-26.6	27,093	42,743		-36.6	5,869	10,216	-42.6	85,977	113,599	-24.3
Germany	27,024	86,649	-68.8	13,565	14,552	-6.8	55,779	55,844	-0.1	973	1,106	-12.0	70,007	75,598		-7.4	29,974	39,668	-24.4	197,322	273,417	-27.8
Spain	2,696	3,583	-24.8	3,010	3,362	-10.5	21,261	18,885	+12.6	2,442	1,584	+54.2	18,050	21,864		-17.4	4,863	6,676	-27.2	52,322	55,954	-6.5
Sweden	6,790	9,784	-30.6	3,863	4,556	-15.2	2,321	1,891	+22.7	231	543	-57.5	4,252	5,285		-19.5	1,579	1,812	-12.9	19,036	23,871	-20.3
EUROPEAN UNION	92,627	165,204	-43.9	45,590	58,660	-22.3	201,552	189,114	+6.6	18,634	19,687	-5.3	213,057	257,139		-17.1	72,177	98,008	-26.4	643,637	787,812	-18.3
EFTA	14,093	14,239	-1.0	1,484	2,560	-42.0	5,951	5,970	-0.3	0	1	-100.0	4,357	6,241		-30.2	1,620	2,214	-26.8	27,505	31,225	-11.9
United Kingdom	19,113	17,243	+10.8	5,786	6,601	-12.3	29,076	23,410	+24.2	0	0		27,894	34,756		-19.7	2,706	3,647	-25.8	84,575	85,657	-1.3
EU + EFTA + UK	125,833	196,686	-36.0	52,860	67,821	-22.1	236,579	218,494	+8.3	18,634	19,688	-5.4	245,308	298,136		-17.7	76,503	103,869	-26.3	755,717	904,694	-16.5

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Aug 2024	Jan-Aug 2023	% change 24/23
France	188,575	174,443	+8.1	89,023	100,747	-11.6	359,536	265,156	+35.6	43,815	46,278	-5.3	358,217	429,095	-16.5	87,734	116,602	-24.8	1,126,900	1,132,321	-0.5
Germany	241,911	355,575	-32.0	117,925	107,962	+9.2	484,804	433,060	+11.9	10,163	10,633	-4.4	703,990	671,407	+4.9	348,433	334,927	+4.0	1,907,226	1,913,564	-0.3
Italy	35,785	40,820	-12.3	41,799	47,204	-11.5	421,013	366,665	+14.8	102,896	95,640	+7.6	325,638	295,009	+10.4	153,595	195,647	-21.5	1,080,726	1,040,985	+3.8
Spain	31,665	30,881	+2.5	38,168	40,189	-5.0	246,963	197,089	+25.3	20,714	15,515	+33.5	265,552	275,294	-3.5	68,489	83,612	-18.1	671,551	642,580	+4.5
EUROPEAN UNION	902,011	983,718	-8.3	501,266	527,697	-5.0	2,138,474	1,765,893	+21.1	224,692	213,537	+5.2	2,504,457	2,580,076	-2.9	909,592	1,007,279	-9.7	7,180,492	7,078,200	+1.4
EFTA	98,071	106,837	-8.2	17,160	21,491	-20.2	57,559	51,827	+11.1	24	66	-63.6	50,117	59,027	-15.1	19,123	19,936	-4.1	242,054	259,184	-6.6
United Kingdom	213,544	193,221	+10.5	100,457	80,458	+24.9	434,698	368,346	+18.0	0	0		453,937	490,483	-7.5	36,219	46,790	-22.6	1,238,855	1,179,298	+5.1
EU + EFTA + UK	1,213,626	1,283,776	-5.5	618,883	629,646	-1.7	2,630,731	2,186,066	+20.3	224,716	213,603	+5.2	3,008,511	3,129,586	-3.9	964,934	1,074,005	-10.2	8,661,401	8,516,682	+1.7

July 2024

In July 2024, new EU car registrations saw a modest increase (+0.2%) with mixed results across the region’s four major markets: Italy (+4.7%) and Spain (+3.4%) recorded moderate gains, while the French (-2.3%) and German (-2.1%) markets experienced declines.

Seven months into 2024, new car registrations increased by 3.9%, reaching more than 6.5 million units. This is the result of a low comparison base. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.6%), Italy (+5.2%), Germany (+4.3%), and France (+2.2%) all recording growth.

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23	July 2024	July 2023	% change 24/23
France	17,030	16,867	+1.0	9,171	13,230	-30.7	48,457	32,877	+47.4	4,430	5,109	-13.3	37,441	48,370	-22.6	9,508	12,493	-23.9	126,037	128,946	-2.3
Germany	30,762	48,682	-36.8	14,811	14,345	+3.2	65,059	53,138	+22.4	1,119	1,258	-11.0	83,405	83,358	+0.1	43,107	42,496	+1.4	238,263	243,277	-2.1
Italy	4,266	4,083	+4.5	4,799	5,244	-8.5	49,859	42,471	+17.4	14,197	11,811	+20.2	35,879	34,579	+3.8	15,940	21,130	-24.6	124,940	119,318	+4.7
Spain	3,827	3,406	+12.4	4,415	5,176	-14.7	34,535	26,253	+31.5	2,536	2,299	+10.3	30,132	34,418	-12.5	8,534	9,650	-11.6	83,979	81,202	+3.4
EUROPEAN UNION	102,705	115,100	-10.8	57,679	67,127	-14.1	273,003	217,172	+25.7	26,724	25,386	+5.3	284,270	305,531	-7.0	107,670	119,752	-10.1	852,051	850,068	+0.2
EFTA	9,617	10,238	-6.1	1,895	2,509	-24.5	6,670	5,612	+18.9	2	4	-50.0	5,359	6,597	-18.8	2,179	2,432	-10.4	25,722	27,392	-6.1
United Kingdom	27,335	23,010	+18.8	13,149	11,702	+12.4	53,982	45,372	+19.0	0	0		49,428	58,150	-15.0	3,623	5,687	-36.3	147,517	143,921	+2.5
EU + EFTA + UK	139,657	148,348	-5.9	72,723	81,338	-10.6	333,655	268,156	+24.4	26,726	25,390	+5.3	339,057	370,278	-8.4	113,472	127,871	-11.3	1,025,290	1,021,381	+0.4

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jul 2024	Jan-Jul 2023	% change 24/23
France	175,432	154,786	+13.3	82,859	91,220	-9.2	328,977	237,990	+38.2	40,666	41,988	-3.1	331,124	386,352	-14.3	81,865	106,386	-23.0	1,040,923	1,018,722	+2.2
Germany	214,887	268,926	-20.1	104,360	93,410	+11.7	429,025	377,216	+13.7	9,190	9,527	-3.5	633,983	595,809	+6.4	318,459	295,259	+7.9	1,709,904	1,640,147	+4.3
Italy	39,208	36,761	+6.7	33,385	43,914	-24.0	393,073	339,393	+15.8	95,609	87,729	+9.0	306,093	270,956	+13.0	144,195	182,403	-20.9	1,011,563	961,156	+5.2
Spain	28,969	27,298	+6.1	35,158	36,827	-4.5	225,701	178,204	+26.7	18,272	13,931	+31.2	247,500	253,430	-2.3	63,624	76,936	-17.3	619,224	586,626	+5.6
EUROPEAN UNION	815,399	818,542	-0.4	449,702	469,037	-4.1	1,935,654	1,576,779	+22.8	206,010	193,817	+6.3	2,292,803	2,322,908	-1.3	837,794	909,305	-7.9	6,537,362	6,290,388	+3.9
EFTA	83,978	92,598	-9.3	15,676	18,931	-17.2	51,608	45,857	+12.5	24	65	-63.1	45,760	52,786	-13.3	17,503	17,722	-1.2	214,549	227,959	-5.9
United Kingdom	194,431	175,978	+10.5	94,671	73,857	+28.2	405,622	344,936	+17.6	0	0		426,043	455,727	-6.5	33,513	43,143	-22.3	1,154,280	1,093,641	+5.5
EU + EFTA + UK	1,093,808	1,087,118	+0.6	560,049	561,825	-0.3	2,392,884	1,967,572	+21.6	206,034	193,882	+6.3	2,764,606	2,831,421	-2.4	888,810	970,170	-8.4	7,906,191	7,611,988	+3.9

June 2024

In June 2024, EU car registrations increased by 4.3%, driven by gains in three out of the region’s four major markets: Italy (+15.1%), Germany (+6.1%), and Spain (+2.2%). In contrast, France saw a decline of 4.8% last month.

In the first half of 2024, new car registrations increased by 4.5%, reaching nearly 5.7 million units. However, registration volumes remain relatively low (-18%) compared to pre-pandemic levels. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.9%), Germany (+5.4%), Italy (+5.4%), and France (+2.8%) all recording growth.

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL				DIESEL			TOTAL
	June 2024	June 2023	% change 24/23	June 2024	June 2023	% change 24/23	June 2024	June 2023	% change 24/23	June 2024	June 2023	% change 24/23	June 2024	June 2023		% change 24/23	June 2024	June 2023	% change 24/23	June 2024	June 2023	% change 24/23
France	29,837	33,280	-10.3	14,044	17,935	-21.7	62,204	46,098	+34.9	4,913	7,551	-34.9	54,480	68,275		-20.2	16,231	17,708	-8.3	181,709	190,847	-4.8
Germany	43,412	52,988	-18.1	15,391	15,930	-3.4	72,579	62,319	+16.5	1,491	2,360	-36.8	111,768	99,682		+12.1	52,688	46,860	+12.4	297,329	280,139	+6.1
Italy	13,365	6,148	+117.4	5,592	7,404	-24.5	61,358	48,244	+27.2	16,261	11,916	+36.5	42,630	39,886		+6.9	20,776	25,431	-18.3	159,982	139,029	+15.1
Spain	5,531	5,474	+1.0	5,204	6,439	-19.2	37,520	30,499	+23.0	2,633	2,657	-0.9	40,440	43,734		-7.5	12,029	12,282	-2.1	103,357	101,085	+2.2
EUROPEAN UNION	156,408	157,982	-1.0	66,482	82,947	-19.9	321,959	254,793	+26.4	31,419	31,101	+1.0	375,393	378,183		-0.7	138,264	139,513	-0.9	1,089,925	1,044,519	+4.3
EFTA	18,430	18,930	-2.6	3,008	3,883	-22.5	10,355	8,059	+28.5	9	6	+50.0	7,108	9,015		-21.2	2,891	3,455	-16.3	41,801	43,348	-3.6
United Kingdom	34,034	31,700	+7.4	16,604	12,770	+30.0	63,980	56,208	+13.8	0	0	#DIV/0!	59,942	70,367		-14.8	4,703	6,221	-24.4	179,263	177,266	+1.1
EU + EFTA + UK	208,872	208,612	+0.1	86,094	99,600	-13.6	396,294	319,060	+24.2	31,428	31,107	+1.0	442,443	457,565		-3.3	145,858	149,189	-2.2	1,310,989	1,265,133	+3.6

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Jun 2024	Jan-Jun 2023	% change 24/23
France	158,402	137,919	+14.9	73,688	77,990	-5.5	280,520	205,113	+36.8	36,236	36,879	-1.7	293,683	337,982	-13.1	72,357	93,893	-22.9	914,886	889,776	+2.8
Germany	184,125	220,244	-16.4	89,549	79,065	+13.3	363,966	324,078	+12.3	8,071	8,269	-2.4	550,578	512,451	+7.4	275,352	252,763	+8.9	1,471,641	1,396,870	+5.4
Italy	34,932	32,660	+7.0	29,014	38,908	-25.4	342,616	296,436	+15.6	81,394	75,144	+8.3	269,736	236,598	+14.0	128,039	160,912	-20.4	885,731	840,658	+5.4
Spain	25,141	23,892	+5.2	30,742	31,651	-2.9	191,167	151,951	+25.8	15,736	11,632	+35.3	217,366	219,012	-0.8	55,091	67,286	-18.1	535,243	505,424	+5.9
EUROPEAN UNION	712,637	703,392	+1.3	392,284	402,319	-2.5	1,661,081	1,358,058	+22.3	179,257	167,630	+6.9	2,007,942	2,018,060	-0.5	730,642	789,429	-7.4	5,683,843	5,438,888	+4.5
EFTA	74,361	82,360	-9.7	13,774	16,422	-16.1	44,946	40,245	+11.7	22	60	-63.3	40,401	46,189	-12.5	15,328	15,290	+0.2	188,832	200,566	-5.9
United Kingdom	167,096	152,968	+9.2	81,522	62,155	+31.2	351,640	299,564	+17.4	0	0	#DIV/0!	376,615	397,577	-5.3	29,890	37,456	-20.2	1,006,763	949,720	+6.0
EU + EFTA + UK	954,094	938,720	+1.6	487,580	480,896	+1.4	2,057,667	1,697,867	+21.2	179,279	167,690	+6.9	2,424,958	2,461,826	-1.5	775,860	842,175	-7.9	6,879,438	6,589,174	+4.4

May 2024

In May 2024, car registrations in the European Union decreased by 3%, with declines observed in three out of the region’s four major markets: Italy (-6.6%), Germany (-4.3%), and France (-2.9%). Spain, on the other hand, achieved a modest growth of 3.4% last month. Despite the downturn in May, year-to-date car registrations over the first five months of 2024 increased by 4.6% to 4.6 million units. The bloc's largest markets all showed a similar performance, with Spain (+6.8%), Germany (+5.2%), France (+4.9%), and Italy (+3.4%) recording growth so far this year.

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL				DIESEL			TOTAL
	May 2024	May 2023	% change 24/23	May 2024	May 2023	% change 24/23	May 2024	May 2023	% change 24/23	May 2024	May 2023	% change 24/23	May 2024	May 2023		% change 24/23	May 2024	May 2023	% change 24/23	May 2024	May 2023	% change 24/23
France	23,892	22,667	+5.4	10,202	12,657	-19.4	47,573	34,395	+38.3	4,946	6,382	-22.5	43,275	54,267		-20.3	11,410	15,168	-24.8	141,298	145,536	-2.9
Germany	29,708	42,780	-30.6	14,038	13,803	+1.7	57,413	57,842	-0.7	875	1,336	-34.5	89,498	87,700		+2.1	44,893	43,505	+3.2	236,425	246,966	-4.3
Italy	5,052	6,181	-18.3	4,579	6,592	-30.5	55,655	51,820	+7.4	9,265	12,751	-27.3	44,856	43,081		+4.1	20,102	28,911	-30.5	139,509	149,336	-6.6
Spain	4,393	4,409	-0.4	4,787	6,009	-20.3	34,079	27,184	+25.4	2,287	2,314	-1.2	39,820	40,534		-1.8	9,792	11,574	-15.4	95,158	92,024	+3.4
EUROPEAN UNION	114,308	129,868	-12.0	59,333	69,539	-14.7	272,568	234,563	+16.2	23,204	28,697	-19.1	323,551	342,795		-5.6	118,733	134,059	-11.43	911,697	939,521	-3.0
EFTA	11,629	16,028	-27.4	2,558	2,986	-14.3	8,468	7,590	+11.6	2	10	-80.0	7,559	7,969		-5.1	3,310	2,906	+13.9	33,526	37,489	-10.6
United Kingdom	26,031	24,513	+6.2	11,866	9,025	+31.5	51,736	46,142	+12.1	0	0	#DIV/0!	53,643	59,766		-10.2	4,402	5,758	-23.5	147,678	145,204	+1.7
EU + EFTA + UK	151,968	170,409	-10.8	73,757	81,550	-9.6	332,772	288,295	+15.4	23,206	28,707	-19.2	384,753	410,530		-6.3	126,445	142,723	-11.4	1,092,901	1,122,214	-2.6

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-May 2024	Jan-May 2023	% change 24/23
France	128,565	104,639	+22.9	59,644	60,055	-0.7	218,316	159,015	+37.3	31,323	29,328	+6.8	239,203	269,707	-11.3	56,126	76,185	-26.3	733,177	698,929	+4.9
Germany	140,713	167,256	-15.9	74,158	63,135	+17.5	291,387	261,759	+11.3	6,580	5,909	+11.4	438,810	412,769	+6.3	222,664	205,903	+8.1	1,174,312	1,116,731	+5.2
Italy	21,566	26,516	-18.7	23,423	31,507	-25.7	281,267	248,245	+13.3	65,134	63,234	+3.0	227,105	196,745	+15.4	107,256	135,520	-20.9	725,751	701,767	+3.4
Spain	19,610	18,418	+6.5	25,543	25,212	+1.3	153,557	121,440	+26.4	13,103	8,975	+46.0	176,981	175,290	+1.0	43,090	55,004	-21.7	431,884	404,339	+6.8
EUROPEAN UNION	556,276	545,399	+2.0	325,631	319,249	+2.0	1,339,723	1,104,010	+21.4	147,847	136,558	+8.3	1,632,315	1,639,179	-0.4	592,701	650,055	-8.8	4,594,493	4,394,450	+4.6
EFTA	55,931	63,430	-11.8	10,766	12,539	-14.1	34,591	32,186	+7.5	13	56	-76.8	33,293	37,174	-10.4	12,437	11,835	+5.1	147,031	157,220	-6.5
United Kingdom	133,062	121,268	+9.7	64,918	49,385	+31.5	287,660	243,356	+18.2	0	0	#DIV/0!	316,673	327,210	-3.2	25,187	31,235	-19.4	827,500	772,454	+7.1
EU + EFTA + UK	745,269	730,097	+2.1	401,315	381,173	+5.3	1,661,974	1,379,552	+20.5	147,860	136,614	+8.2	1,982,281	2,003,563	-1.1	630,325	693,125	-9.1	5,569,024	5,324,124	+4.6

April 2024

In April 2024, the European Union car market grew by 13.7%, with new registrations totalling 913,995 units, driven by strong increases across all major markets: Spain (+23.1%), Germany (+19.8%), France (+10.9%), and Italy (+7.7%).

During the first four months of the year, new car registrations in the European Union increased by 6.6%, reaching nearly 3.7 million units. Solid growth was recorded in the region’s largest markets over the period, with Germany and Spain each seeing a 7.8% increase, followed by France (+7%) and Italy (+6.1%).

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL				DIESEL			TOTAL
	April 2024	April 2023	% change 24/23	April 2024	April 2023	% change 24/23	April 2024	April 2023	% change 24/23	April 2024	April 2023	% change 24/23	April 2024	April 2023		% change 24/23	April 2024	April 2023	% change 24/23	April 2024	April 2023	% change 24/23
France	24,850	17,113	+45.2	10,867	10,882	-0.1	45,798	30,933	+48.1	6,839	6,215	+10.0	47,245	53,478		-11.7	11,378	13,885	-18.1	146,977	132,506	+10.9
Germany	29,668	29,740	-0.2	15,135	11,787	+28.4	60,047	47,681	+25.9	1,206	1,082	+11.5	90,729	76,519		+18.6	46,317	36,138	+28.2	243,102	202,947	+19.8
Italy	3,190	3,986	-20.0	4,467	5,947	-24.9	53,526	43,605	+22.8	12,532	10,540	+18.9	42,211	37,009		+14.1	19,392	24,577	-21.1	135,318	125,664	+7.7
Spain	3,842	3,436	+11.8	5,060	4,326	+17.0	30,439	21,973	+38.5	3,427	1,452	+136.0	40,232	32,410		+24.1	9,000	11,150	-19.3	92,000	74,747	+23.1
EUROPEAN UNION	108,552	94,581	+14.8	62,148	59,941	+3.7	265,992	199,906	+33.1	30,405	24,788	+22.7	328,967	306,462		+7.3	117,931	117,890	+0.03	913,995	803,568	+13.7
EFTA	13,387	11,321	+18.2	2,125	2,346	-9.4	7,177	5,913	+21.4	1	6	-83.3	7,111	6,962		+2.1	2,843	2,207	+28.8	32,644	28,755	+13.5
United Kingdom	22,717	20,522	+10.7	10,493	8,595	+22.1	45,685	41,163	+11.0	0	0		51,210	56,885		-10.0	4,169	5,825	-28.4	134,274	132,990	+1.0
EU + EFTA + UK	144,656	126,424	+14.4	74,766	70,882	+5.5	318,854	246,982	+29.1	30,406	24,794	+22.6	387,288	370,309		+4.6	124,943	125,922	-0.8	1,080,913	965,313	+12.0

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Apr 2024	Jan-Apr 2023	% change 24/23
France	104,673	81,972	+27.7	49,442	47,398	+4.3	170,743	124,620	+37.0	26,377	22,946	+15.0	195,928	215,440	-9.1	44,716	61,017	-26.7	591,879	553,393	+7.0
Germany	111,005	124,476	-10.8	60,120	49,332	+21.9	233,974	203,917	+14.7	5,705	4,573	+24.8	349,312	325,069	+7.5	177,771	162,398	+9.5	937,887	869,765	+7.8
Italy	16,515	20,335	-18.8	18,882	24,915	-24.2	225,616	196,425	+14.9	55,872	50,483	+10.7	182,236	153,664	+18.6	87,173	106,609	-18.2	586,294	552,431	+6.1
Spain	15,219	14,009	+8.6	20,759	19,203	+8.1	119,440	94,256	+26.7	10,814	6,661	+62.3	137,190	134,756	+1.8	33,304	43,430	-23.3	336,726	312,315	+7.8
EUROPEAN UNION	441,992	415,510	+6.4	266,345	249,710	+6.7	1,067,134	869,446	+22.7	124,755	107,895	+15.6	1,309,532	1,296,776	+1.0	473,284	515,586	-8.2	3,683,042	3,454,923	+6.6
EFTA	44,302	47,402	-6.5	8,208	9,553	-14.1	26,123	24,596	+6.2	11	46	-76.1	25,734	29,205	-11.9	9,127	8,929	+2.2	113,505	119,731	-5.2
United Kingdom	107,031	96,755	+10.6	53,052	40,360	+31.4	235,924	197,214	+19.6	0	0		263,030	267,444	-1.7	20,785	25,477	-18.4	679,822	627,250	+8.4
EU + EFTA + UK	593,325	559,667	+6.0	327,605	299,623	+9.3	1,329,181	1,091,256	+21.8	124,766	107,941	+15.6	1,598,296	1,593,425	+0.3	503,196	549,992	-8.5	4,476,369	4,201,904	+6.5

March 2024

The timing of the Easter holidays negatively impacted last month’s sales across most EU markets, including the four largest: Germany (‑6.2%), Spain (-4.7%), Italy (-3.7%), and France (-1.5%).

For the first quarter of the year, car registrations increased by 4.4%, reaching nearly 2.8 million units. The bloc’s major markets saw solid growth from January to March, with Italy and France each recording a 5.7% increase, followed by Germany (+4.2%) and Spain (+3.1%).

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23	March 2024	March 2023	% change 24/23
France	33,981	30,635	+10.9	16,294	15,722	+3.6	49,908	38,515	+29.6	7,482	6,473	+15.6	58,861	71,501	-17.7	13,497	19,866	-32.1	180,023	182,712	-1.5
Germany	31,384	44,125	-28.9	16,016	16,776	-4.5	67,033	67,253	-0.3	1,293	1,339	-3.4	99,753	103,271	-3.4	48,365	48,597	-0.5	263,844	281,361	-6.2
Italy	5,357	8,161	-34.4	5,668	7,278	-22.1	62,798	57,962	+8.3	12,990	13,026	-0.3	50,765	48,044	+5.7	24,401	33,710	-27.6	161,979	168,181	-3.7
Spain	4,203	4,324	-2.8	5,559	5,955	-6.6	33,903	28,760	+17.9	2,177	1,671	+30.3	40,412	44,976	-10.1	8,586	13,840	-38.0	94,840	99,526	-4.7
EUROPEAN UNION	134,397	151,594	-11.3	73,029	78,131	-6.5	299,426	265,904	+12.6	31,420	29,062	+8.1	365,376	406,971	-10.2	128,227	157,355	-18.5	1,031,875	1,089,017	-5.2
EFTA	13,626	22,558	-39.6	2,321	3,137	-26.0	7,903	8,428	-6.2	1	23	-95.7	7,511	9,359	-19.7	2,387	2,875	-17.0	33,749	46,380	-27.2
United Kingdom	48,388	46,626	+3.8	24,517	17,933	+36.7	116,664	92,964	+25.5	0	0		119,005	119,278	-0.2	9,212	11,024	-16.4	317,786	287,825	+10.4
EU + EFTA + UK	196,411	220,778	-11.0	99,867	99,201	+0.7	423,993	367,296	+15.4	31,421	29,085	+8.0	491,892	535,608	-8.2	139,826	171,254	-18.4	1,383,410	1,423,222	-2.8

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Mar 2024	Jan-Mar 2023	% change 24/23
France	79,823	64,859	+23.1	38,575	36,516	+5.6	124,945	93,687	+33.4	19,538	16,731	+16.8	148,683	161,962	-8.2	33,338	47,132	-29.3	444,902	420,887	+5.7
Germany	81,337	94,736	-14.1	44,985	37,545	+19.8	173,927	156,236	+11.3	4,499	3,491	+28.9	258,583	248,550	+4.0	131,454	126,260	+4.1	694,785	666,818	+4.2
Italy	13,325	16,349	-18.5	14,415	18,968	-24.0	172,090	152,820	+12.6	43,340	39,943	+8.5	140,025	116,655	+20.0	67,781	82,032	-17.4	450,976	426,767	+5.7
Spain	11,386	10,573	+7.7	15,700	14,876	+5.5	88,983	72,282	+23.1	7,356	5,209	+41.2	97,057	102,346	-5.2	24,397	32,279	-24.4	244,879	237,565	+3.1
EUROPEAN UNION	332,999	320,948	+3.8	204,001	189,768	+7.5	801,315	669,409	+19.7	94,495	83,269	+13.5	980,477	990,214	-1.0	355,352	397,655	-10.6	2,768,639	2,651,263	+4.4
EFTA	30,915	36,081	-14.3	6,083	7,207	-15.6	18,946	18,683	+1.4	11	40	-72.5	18,623	22,243	-16.3	6,284	6,722	-6.5	80,862	90,976	-11.1
United Kingdom	84,314	76,233	+10.6	42,559	31,765	+34.0	190,239	156,051	+21.9	0	0		211,820	210,559	+0.6	16,616	19,652	-15.4	545,548	494,260	+10.4
EU + EFTA + UK	448,228	433,262	+3.5	252,643	228,740	+10.4	1,010,500	844,143	+19.7	94,506	83,309	+13.4	1,210,920	1,223,016	-1.0	378,252	424,029	-10.8	3,395,049	3,236,499	+4.9

February 2024

In February 2024, the EU car market surged by 10.1% compared to the same month last year, reaching 883,608 units. Among the four major EU markets, France (+13%) and Italy (+12.8%) grew by double-digits, with Spain (+9.9%) and Germany (+5.4%) following.

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23	February 2024	February 2023	% change 24/23
France	25,825	19,595	+31.8	11,732	10,493	+11.8	41,227	29,142	+41.5	5,495	5,171	+6.3	48,095	47,121	+2.1	10,221	14,714	-30.5	142,595	126,236	+13.0
Germany	27,479	32,475	-15.4	14,575	11,916	+22.3	54,792	47,064	+16.4	1,283	965	+33.0	77,106	75,357	+2.3	42,153	38,433	+9.7	217,388	206,210	+5.4
Italy	5,007	4,857	+3.1	4,662	5,588	-16.6	55,407	47,739	+16.1	14,594	13,404	+8.9	45,901	34,419	+33.4	21,455	24,320	-11.8	147,026	130,327	+12.8
Spain	3,804	3,297	+15.4	5,563	4,813	+15.6	28,625	22,620	+26.5	2,417	1,740	+38.9	32,659	31,502	+3.7	8,280	10,029	-17.4	81,348	74,001	+9.9
EUROPEAN UNION	106,187	97,385	+9.0	64,351	57,651	+11.6	255,511	204,835	+24.7	29,847	26,838	+11.2	313,821	295,710	+6.1	113,891	120,016	-5.1	883,608	802,435	+10.1
EFTA	10,045	9,260	+8.5	1,927	2,234	-13.7	5,743	4,891	+17.4	15	8	+87.5	6,376	7,105	-10.3	2,459	2,504	-1.8	26,565	26,002	+2.2
United Kingdom	14,991	12,310	+21.8	6,098	4,723	+29.1	26,140	21,749	+20.2				34,579	32,311	+7.0	3,078	3,348	-8.1	84,886	74,441	+14.0
EU + EFTA + UK	131,223	118,955	+10.3	72,376	64,608	+12.0	287,394	231,475	+24.2	29,862	26,846	+11.2	354,776	335,126	+5.9	119,428	125,868	-5.1	995,059	902,878	+10.2

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23	Jan-Feb 2024	Jan-Feb 2023	% change 24/23
France	45,842	34,224	+33.9	22,281	20,794	+7.2	75,037	55,172	+36.0	12,056	10,258	+17.5	89,822	90,461	-0.7	19,841	27,266	-27.2	264,879	238,175	+11.2
Germany	49,953	50,611	-1.3	28,969	20,769	+39.5	106,894	88,983	+20.1	3,206	2,152	+49.0	158,830	145,279	+9.3	83,089	77,663	+7.0	430,941	385,457	+11.8
Italy	7,968	8,188	-2.7	8,747	11,690	-25.2	109,270	94,858	+15.2	30,353	26,917	+12.8	89,240	68,611	+30.1	43,370	48,322	-10.2	288,948	258,586	+11.7
Spain	7,180	6,249	+14.9	10,141	8,921	+13.7	55,076	43,522	+26.5	5,179	3,538	+46.4	56,642	57,370	-1.3	15,815	18,439	-14.2	150,033	138,039	+8.7
EUROPEAN UNION	198,850	169,351	+17.4	130,942	111,534	+17.4	500,534	402,441	+24.4	62,847	54,061	+16.3	615,797	584,549	+5.3	227,709	240,280	-5.2	1,736,679	1,562,216	+11.2
EFTA	17,296	13,563	+27.5	3,657	4,067	-10.1	10,354	9,470	+9.3	22	19	+15.8	11,627	13,475	-13.7	4,739	4,958	-4.4	47,695	45,552	+4.7
United Kingdom	35,926	29,607	+21.3	18,042	13,832	+30.4	73,575	63,087	+16.6	0	0		92,815	91,281	+1.7	7,404	8,628	-14.2	227,762	206,435	+10.3
EU + EFTA + UK	252,072	212,521	+18.6	152,641	129,433	+17.9	584,463	474,998	+23.0	62,869	54,080	+16.3	720,239	689,305	+4.5	239,852	253,866	-5.5	2,012,136	1,814,203	+10.9

January 2024

In January 2024, the EU new car market rebounded from the slowdown experienced in December 2023, with year-on-year car registrations increasing by 12.1% to 851,690 units. Notably, the bloc’s major markets all saw significant growth, with Germany (+19.1%), Italy (+10.6%), France (+9.2%), and Spain (+7.3%) achieving either high single-digit or doubledigit gains.

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL				DIESEL			TOTAL
	January 2024	January 2023	% change 24/23	January 2024	January 2023	% change 24/23	January 2024	January 2023	% change 24/23	January 2024	January 2023	% change 24/23	January 2024	January 2023		% change 24/23	January 2024	January 2023	% change 24/23	January 2024	January 2023	% change 24/23
France	20,017	14,629	+36.8	10,549	10,301	+2.4	33,810	26,030	+29.9	6,561	5,087	+29.0	41,727	43,340		-3.7	9,620	12,552	-23.4	122,284	111,939	+9.2
Germany	22,474	18,136	+23.9	14,394	8,853	+62.6	52,102	41,919	+24.3	1,923	1,187	+62.0	81,724	69,922		+16.9	40,936	39,230	+4.3	213,553	179,247	+19.1
Italy	2,961	3,331	-11.1	4,084	6,102	-33.1	53,827	47,119	+14.2	15,764	13,513	+16.7	43,335	34,192		+26.7	21,914	24,002	-8.7	141,885	128,259	+10.6
Spain	3,375	2,952	+14.3	4,578	4,108	+11.4	26,451	20,902	+26.5	2,762	1,798	+53.6	23,966	25,868		-7.4	7,553	8,410	-10.2	68,685	64,038	+7.3
EUROPEAN UNION	92,741	71,954	+28.9	66,660	53,838	+23.8	245,068	198,481	+23.5	32,892	27,231	+20.8	299,914	288,249		+4.0	114,415	120,263	-4.9	851,690	760,016	+12.1
EFTA	7,250	4,273	+69.7	1,766	1,681	+5.1	4,856	5,079	-4.4	8	11	-27.3	5,051	6,064		-16.7	1,884	1,918	-1.8	20,815	19,026	+9.4
United Kingdom	20,935	17,297	+21.0	11,944	9,109	+31.1	47,435	41,338	+14.7	0	0		58,236	58,970		-1.2	4,326	5,280	-18.1	142,876	131,994	+8.2
EU + EFTA + UK	120,926	93,524	+29.3	80,370	64,628	+24.4	297,359	244,898	+21.4	32,900	27,242	+20.8	363,201	353,283		+2.8	120,625	127,461	-5.4	1,015,381	911,036	+11.5

December 2023

In 2023, the EU car market concluded with a solid 13.9% expansion compared to 2022, reaching a full-year volume of 10.5 million units. All EU markets grew in the past year except for Hungary (-3.4%). Double-digit gains were recorded in most markets, including three of the largest: Italy (+18.9%), Spain (+16.7%), and France (+16.1%). Conversely, Germany recorded a more modest 7.3% year-on-year increase, influenced by its weaker December performance.

Monthly

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL				DIESEL			TOTAL
	December 2023	December 2022	% change 23/22	December 2023	December 2022	% change 23/22	December 2023	December 2022	% change 23/22	December 2023	December 2022	% change 23/22	December 2023	December 2022		% change 23/22	December 2023	December 2022	% change 23/22	December 2023	December 2022	% change 23/22
France	37,355	24,944	+49.8	17,058	14,544	+17.3	48,138	36,294	+32.6	5,015	4,924	+1.8	56,700	55,810		+1.6	16,739	21,511	-22.2	181,005	158,027	+14.5
Germany	54,654	104,325	-47.6	17,894	69,801	-74.4	55,687	40,359	+38.0	1,351	1,383	-2.3	74,894	64,525		+16.1	37,403	33,925	+10.3	241,883	314,318	-23.0
Italy	6,806	4,520	+50.6	4,482	5,119	-12.4	38,855	36,662	+6.0	10,247	10,532	-2.7	33,820	27,073		+24.9	16,901	21,055	-19.7	111,111	104,961	+5.9
Spain	5,896	3,405	+73.2	6,546	4,634	+41.3	27,924	22,463	+24.3	3,062	1,822	+68.1	29,422	29,450		-0.1	8,922	12,136	-26.5	81,772	73,910	+10.6
EUROPEAN UNION	160,700	193,271	-16.9	71,546	119,553	-40.2	229,567	182,140	+26.0	25,504	24,297	+5.0	274,477	261,126		+5.1	105,258	115,854	-9.1	867,052	896,241	-3.3
EFTA	17,439	40,487	-56.9	4,795	5,096	-5.9	7,829	7,961	-1.7	4	20	-80.0	7,786	8,730		-10.8	2,730	3,388	-19.4	40,583	65,682	-38.2
United Kingdom	27,841	42,285	-34.2	12,162	8,367	+45.4	41,838	31,714	+31.9	0	0		54,360	42,090		+29.2	4,891	4,006	+22.1	141,092	128,462	+9.8
EU + EFTA + UK	205,980	276,043	-25.4	88,503	133,016	-33.5	279,234	221,815	+25.9	25,508	24,317	+4.9	336,623	311,946		+7.9	112,879	123,248	-8.4	1,048,727	1,090,385	-3.8

Year to Date

	BATTERY ELECTRIC			PLUG-IN HYBRID			HYBRID ELECTRIC1			OTHERS2			PETROL			DIESEL			TOTAL
	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22	Jan-Dec 2023	Jan-Dec 2022	% change 23/22
France	298,219	202,929	+47.0	162,950	126,547	+28.8	432,299	332,669	+29.9	67,945	58,904	+15.3	641,582	568,881	+12.8	171,728	239,105	-28.2	1,774,723	1,529,035	+16.1
Germany	524,219	470,559	+11.4	175,724	362,093	-51.5	664,580	465,227	+42.9	14,845	17,759	-16.4	978,660	863,445	+13.3	486,581	472,274	+3.0	2,844,609	2,651,357	+7.3
Italy	66,265	49,169	+34.8	69,008	64,632	+6.8	565,551	450,938	+25.4	143,914	128,754	+11.8	447,298	365,465	+22.4	273,295	257,968	+5.9	1,565,331	1,316,926	+18.9
Spain	51,612	30,521	+69.1	62,164	47,791	+30.1	302,845	239,672	+26.4	26,343	14,935	+76.4	387,749	340,863	+13.8	118,646	139,594	-15.0	949,359	813,376	+16.7
EUROPEAN UNION	1,538,621	1,123,444	+37.0	813,480	874,777	-7.0	2,716,963	2,098,608	+29.5	320,638	277,014	+15.7	3,724,646	3,368,726	+10.6	1,433,368	1,520,940	-5.8	10,547,716	9,263,509	+13.9
EFTA	166,096	183,993	-9.7	35,146	38,228	-8.1	79,305	69,253	+14.5	77	225	-65.8	87,194	91,133	-4.3	28,893	34,098	-15.3	396,711	416,930	-4.8
United Kingdom	314,684	267,204	+17.8	141,311	101,414	+39.3	601,071	479,992	+25.2	0	0		774,487	682,472	+13.5	71,501	82,981	-13.8	1,903,054	1,614,063	+17.9
EU + EFTA + UK	2,019,401	1,574,641	+28.2	989,937	1,014,419	-2.4	3,397,339	2,647,853	+28.3	320,715	277,239	+15.7	4,586,327	4,142,331	+10.7	1,533,762	1,638,019	-6.4	12,847,481	11,294,502	+13.7

2022

	20221	2021	% change 22/21	% share 2022
EUROPE	12,830,910	14,326,088	-10.4	19.4
European Union	9,255,926	9,700,089	-4.6	14.0
EFTA	416,946	427,546	-2.5	0.6
United Kingdom	1,614,063	1,647,181	-2.0	2.4
Russia	578,042	1,548,907	-62.7	0.9
Turkey	571,329	561,853	+1.7	0.9
Ukraine	37,247	105,591	-64.7	0.1
Others: Europe	357,357	334,921	+6.7	0.5

Forecast

2023

New car registrations are expected to increase by around 5% in 2023. If achieved, this would put registration volumes broadly on a par with 2020, but still far below the 13 million units recorded prior to the pandemic in 2019.4

2024

• European Union new car sales will rise by only 2.5% in 2024, a slowdown compared to a 12% increase in 2023, European automobile manufacturers association ACEA forecast.
• The 2023 forecast is an upgrade from ACEA's forecast in January of 5% growth. Still, new car registrations at 10.4 million euros will be nearly 20% below record 2019 levels.
• ACEA said the share of battery electric vehicles would rise from 14-14.5% this year to about 20% in 2024.

Trade Balance

2022

Trade in volume By type, in units	Cars	Vans	Trucks	Buses	TOTAL
2022
Imports	3,243,811	334,387	308,057	13,067	3,899,322
Exports	5,552,244	434,783	256,726	13,837	6,257,590
2021
Imports	3,112,073	334,270	82,281	47,330	3,575,954
Exports	5,039,234	473,089	166,804	18,040	5,697,167
% change 22/21
Imports	+4.2%	+0.04%	+274.4%	-72.4%	+9.0%
Exports	+10.2%	-8.1%	+53.9%	-23.3%	+9.8%

Balance Car Passnenger EU

	Trada Balance Units	Y/Y	Trade Balance (M)	Y/Y
2022	2,308,433	19.78%	95,689	30.97%
2021	1,927,161	-5.61%	73,062	5.09%
2020	2,041,728	-6.36%	69,526	-9.92%
2019	2,180,504	-12.12%	77,183	-9.10%
2018	2,481,159	-14.55%	84,912	-7.42%
2017	2,903,733		91,718

Trade Balance in Units Specific Countries

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
United Kingdom	1,176,531	1,081,130	1,164,690	800,915	573,372	649,537
United States	713,179	662,853	470,564	296,673	337,191	438,351
China	367,830	331,897	269,493	225,535	-26,610	-120,064
Turkey	-288,138	-456,567	-516,708	-114,132	-141,933	-129,766
Switzerland	201,785	186,569	191,240	157,592	150,353	162,705
South Korea	-248,770	-270,836	-286,094	-130,795	-231,741	-227,828
Japan	-311,748	-339,990	-447,317	-313,560	-224,350	-220,244
WORLD	2,903,733	2,481,159	2,180,504	2,041,728	1,927,161	2,308,433

Exports Units

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	% change 22/21	% share 2022
United Kingdom	2,077,829	1,922,532	1,865,578	1,307,320	980,114	1,090,261	11.2	19.6
United States	952,965	919,264	819,653	684,393	645,699	704,404	9.1	12.7
Ukraine	88,856	86,061	149,384	195,298	207,664	436,336	110.1	7.9
China	467,684	465,177	402,883	395,338	408,882	401,817	-1.7	7.2
Turkey	430,025	258,328	184,401	379,948	316,922	322,290	1.7	5.8
Switzerland	265,898	252,446	249,754	205,641	204,322	207,213	1.4	3.7
South Korea	163,182	164,978	155,776	187,698	146,140	183,175	25.3	3.3
Japan	240,269	241,395	227,019	170,777	177,109	170,270	-3.9	3.1
Serbia	117,438	137,970	130,399	122,479	121,718	164,124	34.8	3
Norway	131,917	124,356	111,772	98,677	122,854	138,614	12.8	2.5
WORLD	6,768,781	6,444,182	6,155,087	5,098,589	5,039,234	5,552,244	10.2	100

Imports Units

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	% change 22/21	% share 2022
China	99,854	133,280	133,390	169,803	435,492	521,881	19.8	16.1
Turkey	718,163	714,895	701,109	494,080	458,855	452,056	-1.5	13.9
United Kingdom	901,298	841,402	700,888	506,405	406,742	440,724	8.4	13.6
South Korea	411,952	435,814	441,870	318,493	377,881	411,003	8.8	12.7
Japan	552,017	581,385	674,336	484,337	401,459	390,514	-2.7	12
Morocco	222,965	266,276	280,731	240,488	271,030	329,049	21.4	10.1
United States	239,786	256,411	349,089	387,720	308,508	266,053	-13.8	8.2
Mexico	228,668	262,147	218,077	170,600	178,213	181,241	1.7	5.6
South Africa	140,966	172,407	213,438	124,886	93,456	121,142	29.6	3.7
Switzerland	64,113	65,877	58,514	48,049	53,969	44,508	-17.5	1.4
WORLD	3,865,048	3,963,023	3,974,583	3,056,861	3,112,073	3,243,811	4.2	100

Trade balance in Value Specific Countries

In million €	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
United States	24,284	23,560	19,292	12,892	17,235	27,800
United Kingdom	22,640	21,310	23,193	18,778	13,439	17,377
China	17,197	17,945	17,915	16,412	15,175	14,887
South Korea	322	110	-870	1,318	-778	570
Switzerland	6,689	6,304	6,697	6,007	6,076	7,145
Turkey	-1,910	-4,272	-5,702	-377	-1,489	-216
Japan	-1,149	-1,597	-3,675	-2,481	-966	-1,521
WORLD	91,718	84,912	77,183	69,526	73,062	95,689

Exports Value

In million €	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	% change 22/21	% share 2022
United States	30,664	29,010	28,727	23,372	25,375	36,424	+43.5	23.2
United Kingdom	37,854	35,516	36,460	28,086	21,717	26,480	+21.9	16.8
China	17,526	18,338	18,632	18,178	21,071	24,256	+15.1	15.4
South Korea	5,508	5,899	5,679	6,829	6,333	8,441	+33.3	5.4
Switzerland	6,973	6,601	6,990	6,278	6,402	7,460	+16.5	4.7
Turkey	5,990	3,875	2,581	5,953	4,650	6,088	+30.9	3.9
Japan	7,170	7,189	7,040	5,630	6,083	6,085	+0.0	3.9
Norway	3,472	3,297	3,196	3,112	4,306	5,737	+33.2	3.6
Canada	3,545	3,316	2,887	1,900	2,478	3,377	+36.3	2.1
Australia	3,586	3,284	2,804	2,074	2,607	3,226	+23.7	2.1
WORLD	147,426	141,008	140,267	121,117	126,475	157,315	+24.4	100.0

Imports Value

In million €	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	% change 22/21	% share 2022
China	329	393	717	1,766	5,896	9,369	+58.9	15.2
United Kingdom	15,214	14,206	13,267	9,308	8,278	9,103	+10.0	14.8
United States	6,380	5,450	9,435	10,480	8,140	8,624	+5.9	14.0
South Korea	5,186	5,789	6,549	5,511	7,111	7,871	+10.7	12.8
Japan	8,319	8,786	10,715	8,111	7,049	7,606	+7.9	12.3
Turkey	7,900	8,147	8,283	6,330	6,139	6,304	+2.7	10.2
Mexico	4,600	5,179	4,962	4,109	4,588	5,081	+10.7	8.2
Morocco	1,773	2,124	2,308	2,191	2,840	3,472	+22.2	5.6
South Africa	2,930	3,631	4,562	2,380	1,916	2,914	+52.0	4.7
Switzerland	284	297	293	271	326	315	-3.3	0.5
WORLD	55,708	56,096	63,084	51,591	53,413	61,626	+15.4	100.0

Prices

Used Cars

The AUTO1 Group Price Index shows the monthly evolution of used car prices across Europe. By analyzing AUTO1 Group’s database of around 3.6 million used car transactions Europe-wide, AUTO1 Group has developed a pioneering index to improve data transparency in the used car market and give insights into wholesale prices. The starting point of the AUTO1 Group Price Index is January 2015 with a reference value of 100. The AUTO1 Group Price Index is published on a monthly basis.

https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-march-2024/

June 2024

Y/Y used prices continue to show a decline, with used car prices falling by 9.2 % from June 2023 (152.2) to June this year (138.2).

• Q2 2024 increased by 0.65% Q/Q vs -6.53 in Q1 2024.
• Year-to-date, the index moved from 142.0 in January to 138.2 in June, reflecting a 2.7 % decrease, and a -5.92% from December level.

March 2024

The AUTO1 Group Price Index shows a continuous decrease for used car prices in 2024, dropping from 141.2 in February to 137.3 in March 2024 (-2.8%). After stable wholesale used car prices in 2023, with a slight decrease by 1.6% from January to December 2023, the first quarter of 2024 shows a more dynamic price environment.

• Year to date, used car prices have declined by -3.3%.
• Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 9%, with the index moving from 150.9 in March 2023 to 137.3 in March this year. Used car prices are still 18.3% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic compared to March 2019 (116.1).

January 2024

• The year 2024 starts off with dropping used car prices. The AUTO1 Group Price Index, the European Used Car Price Report, showed a decrease of 3.3% in used car prices moving from 146.9 in December 2023 to 142.0 in January 2024.
• Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 4.9%, with the index moving from 149.3 in January 2023 to 142.0 in January of this year. However, used car prices are still 24.8% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Used car prices are down %17.2 from the peak.

December 2023

• Throughout 2023, prices remained overall stable with a slight decrease by 1.6% from January to December. Prices in December were still 25% higher than in December 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Prices decline -0.7% in Q4 2023

September 2023

• The European Used Car Price Report, continues to show a stable used car price environment in September 2023. The index showed a slight increase of 0.4% moving from 147.4 in August to 148.0 in September.
• Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 12%, with the index moving from 168.3 in September 2022 to 148.0 in September of this year.
• Year to date, prices remain stable with a slight decrease by 0.9% from January to September.

August 2023

• The AUTO1 Group Price Index, The European Used Car Price Report, remained stable in August 2023. The Index showed a slight decrease of 0.5% moving from 148.2 in July to 147.4 in August.
• Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 13.7%, with the index moving from 170.8 in August 2022 to 147.4 in August of this year. However, used car prices are still 25.5% higher than before COVID-19 pandemic in August 2019.
• Year to date, prices remain stable with a slight decrease by 1.3% from January to August.

Competitiveness Challenge

Moody's August 2023

Market Share

Market share data suggest that European OEMs’ leadership position is being challenged as new entrants, especially from China, gain traction. Our analysis also suggests that European market conditions for local development and production are becoming less competitive.

• Since 2019, European incumbents have lost six percentage points of market share in their home market and five percentage points in China. Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs are gaining ground in both China and Europe, reaching 45 percent market share in their home market in 2022 and octupling their market share in Europe between 2020 and 2022.
• Besides market share, European OEMs also face the challenge of running profitable BEV businesses.
• In the premium segment, European OEMs still hold 71 percent of global sales. But this segment is also becoming more challenging to hold: newcomers claimed 18 percent of the premium market in 2022.

Supply Chain

Research shows that successful automakers are developing cars defined by software, resulting in a tripling of software content per vehicle since 2015. As a result of this shift toward more centralized computing, portions of vehicles may become commoditized, and scale and incremental improvements may become the main drivers of competitiveness.

Traditional suppliers find themselves sandwiched between “high-tech commodity” companies that provide semiconductors and batteries upstream and cost-pressured incumbent OEMs downstream. This dynamic threatens European supply chains. Consider that the current battery value chain is largely controlled by Chinese companies.

To counteract recent developments and establish a robust supply network similar to Europe's during the ICE era, major players in the industry are forming strategic partnerships. These partnerships aim to ensure access to essential resources and manufacturing capacity, particularly for batteries and semiconductors. Some established companies intend to enhance their influence over crucial parts of the value chain by collaborating with mine operators or investing in mining operations. However, despite these initiatives being a positive step, the projected supply and capacity are still insufficient to meet the region's anticipated demand by 2030. Therefore, there is a pressing need for accelerated efforts in this direction.

Road Map For Competitiveness

European automotive OEMs and suppliers earn about three times the revenue of their Chinese counterparts and five times the EBIT, which means the European industry can act from a position of strength. In short, the ecosystem approach that made Europe strong in the ICE era has to be translated to serve the era of software-defined, electrified cars. A rapid response from OEMs and suppliers in the European auto industry will be important. But other stakeholders—including adjacent industries such as the energy, research, and public sectors—would also need to act collaboratively to provide an environment that enables success for the European automotive industry (and mobility ecosystem) of the future. In short, the ecosystem approach that made Europe strong in the ICE era has to be translated to serve the era of software-defined, electrified cars.

• Traditional consumer segmentation would need to be adapted for the era of software-defined electric vehicles, with more-detailed consumer profiles and more-granular user profiles.
• Chinese OEMs can turn their cost advantage into a competitive edge: our analysis shows that their costs are 20 to 30 percent lower than those of European OEMs. European OEMs could close up to 20 percentage points of the cost gap by adopting structural product design, vertically integrating battery production, scaling EV production, and improving productivity. As for the remaining 5 to 10 percentage-point cost gap, European OEMs could identify differentiating features that consumers would be willing to pay a premium.
• European OEMs and suppliers would need a fundamental strategic overhaul to regain competitiveness in China and meet the preferences of Chinese customers. Chinese OEMs offer significantly lower price points, and their products are more appealing and tailored to Chinese consumers’ needs and preferences. According to our research, the average customer in China is 34 years old, compared with 58 in Europe. These consumers have significantly different purchasing criteria.
• We project that the European supply–demand gap for batteries will reach almost 40 percent, or 500 gigawatt-hours (GWh), by 2030. To cover European battery demand locally, an additional 20 gigafactories, a €35 billion investment, would be needed. The continent would also need 37 new semiconductor fabs to cover local demand, requiring a €190 billion investment.
• According to our analysis, only one European manufacturer is among the top ten in terms of market capitalization for battery manufacturing, while in semiconductors, Europe needs to close the capability gap for the next wave of computing to deliver functionalities such as ADAS.
• 51 percent of consumers worldwide would consider switching to some form of ADAS car in the future. To remain competitive, the European industry may need to form a cross-industry alliance.
• Software is essential to the future of the automotive industry. But according to our analysis, only 15 to 20 percent of current R&D workers at European incumbents have software skills, compared with almost 45 percent at new entrants. To shrink the gap, industry stakeholders would need to find holistic solutions
• Another critical catalyst of the European industry’s transition is EV infrastructure. According to our analysis, the industry will need a cumulative €300 billion worth of infrastructure investments in electricity generation, the electricity grid, EV chargers, and hydrogen refueling systems through 2030. European stakeholders have begun to install public chargers at a pace of 2,000 charging points per week. But to meet demand, decision makers would need to build out charging infrastructure to the tune of 6,000 to 14,000 charging points per week.
• the wind and solar assets required to fulfill the corresponding demand for energy with renewable sources would require four times as many workers in Europe by 2030 than are currently available.

BCG Research September 2023

Threats

Traditionally the European auto industry benefited from five advantages: technological leadership, cost efficiency, brand value, stable geopolitics, and the Chinese sales market. All are currently threatened.

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure

• Technological Leadership: the advantages that European OEMs had in ICE design and high-quality engineering are increasingly losing their importance as the changeover to electric and software-defined vehicles accelerates. In the electric vehicle (EV) realm, the European auto sector is having difficulty keeping up with other global players in battery cell design, power electronics, extending battery range, and innovative rapid charging technologies. Companies skilled in designing software first and hardware second are increasingly poised for market leadership. Names like X-PENG, NIO and BYD in China and US BEV companies Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are viewed as serious new competitors.
• Cost: US and Chinese factories rapidly adopt robotics, moving closer to more sophisticated automation. Moreover, many of these companies have more flexible cost structures because their labor outlays are lower due to little or no unionization at their plants. And energy price volatility is likely to be a permanent fixture, the result of geopolitical conflicts and resource scarcity, which will affect European automakers more than such companies in other regions.
• Brand: In a huge strategic push, China is promoting its technological independence and breakthroughs while upgrading the Made in China reputation to no longer stand for cheap production. EV-related sales spurt in China will be difficult for companies with an old-fashioned and staid brand image to navigate. It is worth noting, as well, that some Chinese EV companies are piggybacking on existing dealer networks in Europe to quickly introduce their brands to local consumers, hoping to replace European OEMs in their home markets.
• Geopolitics: Planned deglobalization is more the norm now to guard against political uncertainties and disruption. Supply chains are shrinking as automakers in developed countries are encouraged to source parts and materials locally.
• Chinese Sales Market: The rise of Chinese EV makers catering to local preferences has forced European companies to lower their prices in China, as they struggle to sell as planned. The Chinese market is becoming more challenging for European OEMs as Chinese competitors improve and nationalism grows.

Three Future Scenarios

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure

Scenario 1 is the least desirable outcome but is perhaps a window on the direction that the European auto industry is moving unless steps are taken to stem the bleeding. If Europe's investment in local battery and semi-conductor production does not speed up, supply of such critical items is likely to remain prone to shortages and global dependencies.

The European companies are beset by a lack of developed local technology talent and by stringent regulations that hinder the ability to catch up to their rivals in software and EV advances. These shortcomings also extend to ADAS and battery breakthroughs as well as factory automation. Focused investments in R&D and the acquisition, training, and retention of local IT talent is also needed to combat this.

Importantly, European OEMs will also need to cut costs through restructuring labor and making investments into automation, navigating headwinds from labor unions.

Economic consequences of each scenario

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure

How to Achieve Securing the Lead

For the European auto industry, staying on its current path is likely to lead to secular decline. Even taking limited steps to improve is expected to result in stagnation or only slight gains. But achieving real leadership and a positive future is not out of reach.

These actions primarily involve:

• OEMs becoming more nimble and less staid, developing and adopting new technologies, and speeding up the transition towards EVs—and all of these in actuality as well as in public perception.
• Suppliers playing a big role by working with European automakers to customize parts innovation for specific and crucial global markets as well as making supply chains less prone to disruption.
• Crucially, political leaders and regulators designing clear industrial policies intended to mitigate risks to global trade and safeguard continued access to foreign markets for European OEMs.

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure

Allianz May 2023

2022 was a record-breaking year for alternative energy vehicles in Europe, with sales soaring to 4.4mn units (+11% vs 2021) despite an overall -5% decline in new vehicle registrations. Between 2019 and 2022, the market share of alternative energy vehicles climbed from 11% to 47%. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) led the way, with sales booming by +28%, representing 12% of all new vehicle registrations.

Despite its rapid growth, Europe’s adoption of alternative energy vehicles comes only second in the world – and a distant second at that. In 2022, more than 5.4mn battery electric vehicles – two-thirds of the world total – were registered in China, +83% from 2021. Alternative energy vehicles account for 20% of total registrations

In a historic first, Chinese automakers reached parity with foreign brands in 2022 and surpassed them in Q4, capturing 51% of the market share (Figure 3). Their share in electric vehicles alone stood at 80% and showed no sign of abatement in Q1 2023.Due to:

• A strong cost advantage for BEV manufacturing based on the bigger volumes of the Chinese car market and a competitive supplier base
• A wider range of available BEVs (city and compact cars in particular) compared with international competitors, which have so far mostly focused on large and expensive sedans and sport utility vehicles
• Positive product reviews and customer reception for China-branded EVs resulting in good brand recognition

European Imported volumes have been declining in recent years, dipping below 500,000 in 2022. Over the past decade, the market share of European imports has dropped from an estimated 2.9% to 1.8% of total registrations.

Accounting for 85% of European automakers‘ sales volumes in the Chinese market, local subsidiaries have generally lagged in adopting electric vehicle technology compared to their pure-play counterparts: Of the 20 most popular electric vehicles sold in China in 2022, only one is manufactured by a Sino-European joint venture. In the face of flat, then declining market shares

Chinese car imports fell from 1.2mn units in 2017 to 0.9mn units in 2022 – a -30% drop in a market down by only -6%. Even more striking, the trade balance in value terms went from a USD37bn trade deficit to USD7bn trade surplus over the same period, showing that rising Chinese competitiveness is not only allowing the country to become more self-reliant, but also to expand in international markets

it is European markets that contributed the most to booming exports, jumping from an estimated 8% share of exports in 2017 to a 28% share in 2022. For the first time ever, Europe’s vehicle trade balance moving into negative territory in December 2022.

Scenario: China gaining Market share

Chinese brands capture 75% of their domestic market and China-made cars 10% of the European market by 2030

Assumptions:

• A compound annual growth rate of +2.5% for the Chinese passenger car market by 2030, bringing annual registrations to 28.6mn units, and a linear progression of the market shares of Chinese carmakers to 75% of total passenger car registrations.
• A compound annual growth rate of +6.3% for the European passenger car market by 2030, bringing annual registrations to 15.1mn units. Higher growth for the European market does not reflect greater potential, but the historical low in registrations reached in 2022 and a progressive return to the peak registration levels of the 2010s. BEV penetration would stand at 80%, which is close to the weighted average of the pledges made by leading carmakers present in Europe for 2030 (81%), meanwhile, imports from China climb to 10% of all car sales in Europe as the continent goes electric
• Value added per vehicle of EUR14,200. Value added data were retrieved using Eurostat’s national accounts aggregates by industry database, using value added for 2019 rather than 2020 or 2021, which are often incomplete and reflecting the highly unusual pandemic year

Consequences:

• Total sales in China from European carmakers would fall by -39%, with local production falling from an estimated 4.4mn units in 2022 units to 2.7mn units in 2030, and exports from 480,000 to 290,000 units
• Their combined Chinese sales amounted to about 22% of their global deliveries. Assuming their operations in China are as profitable as those in other markets, 22% of their combined EUR67bn in net profit for 2022 brings the net profit at risk to EUR14.7bn. Because 50-50 joint ventures still account for the bulk of their local sales, at least EUR7.3bn of that EUR14.7bn can be attributed to European carmakers, that would be loss.
• Chinese exports would reach 1.5mn vehicles in 2030, equivalent to 13.5% of the EU’s 2022 production or the combined output of the region’s three largest automotive assembly factories. Rising Chinese imports would take a bigger toll on local production compared with competing but modest imports from Japan and South Korea. Greater reliance on imports would lower the capacity utilization rates of European factories, weigh on their profitability and encourage further capacity eliminations.
• The value added impact on the European economy would stand at EUR24.2bn in 2030 for the automotive sector, the equivalent of 0.15% of the region’s 2022 GDP.
• Eliminating the same 14% of lost automotive production on the value added generated by the automotive industry in other sectors would amount to an extra EUR21bn in lost value added for the European economy. Note, however, that this is an upper bound estimate, given that some services such as retail are provided irrespective of the actual place of car assembly.

Solutions:

• Seeking reciprocity in trade terms, not just with China but also the US, should be a priority to have a more level playing field for the European industry.
• Well-performing charging infrastructure would lower the price tag for the average BEV and convince users in less urbanized areas to make the switch. In our previous report, we estimated the necessary investment in charging infrastructure at EUR13.4bn per year to meet Europe’s Fit For 55 target
• If Europe struggles to compete with China the short run, it could seek to join it. All else unchanged, it would be far more beneficial for Europe to have Chinabranded vehicles on its roads if they were assembled locally rather than imported.
• Europe should also consider prioritizing the development of mining and refining capacities when possible, and establishing trade deals with partner countries when not, to secure its economic and strategic interests. In this respect, the European Critical Raw Material Act (CRMCA) is a step in the right direction whose specifics will need to be communicated and enforced as soon as possible.
• Late in current battery technology manufacturing, Europe should also prepare for what lies ahead as both China and the US are heavily investing in next generation battery technologies. The reliance on constrained metals such as cobalt necessitates the exploration of alternative battery technologies to mitigate supply risks and develop different types of batteries for different needs.

Future Macro Outlook

Moody's August 2023

• Energy and resources: Wholesale electricity costs in Europe have surged to twice the costs in the United States and triple costs in China.1 This creates challenges for the auto industry, in which a significant portion of production costs come from energy requirements.

• Geopolitical tensions: The European auto industry generates a significant—and higher compared with other regions—share of its revenues through exports,2 which means current geopolitical pressures have an outsize impact on European automakers.

• Supply chain challenges: Compared with other industries, the auto industry relies more heavily on timely deliveries of parts and components from international markets. The European auto industry is therefore at considerable risk when finely tuned international supply chains are disrupted.

• Inflation: Inflation has hit Europe much more severely than the United States or China, with labor costs for European automakers disproportionately affected compared with other industries.

• Productivity crisis: Europe’s productivity and economic growth lag behind those of its peers, particularly in areas such as software engineering in which the auto industry needs significant additional capacity.

KPMG 2023

Focused mostly on ICE Market impact

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

"Recessions come and go, yet the automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) sector has continued to grow. And that has placed the focus on building up capacity and harnessing process efficiency. Now, growth no longer looks so certain. In fact, we believe that the automotive OEM sector has entered a period of decline and disruption. Emerging out of the pandemic is a perfect storm that threatens to change the fortunes of the automotive industry."

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

Five key factors are driving this decline:

Demand could fail to materialize

Macroeconomic trends, rising inflation and economic uncertainty — coupled with global geopolitical disruption — suggest the anticipated rebound in demand may not materialize.

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

Socio-demographic trends foreshadow a shift in demand

• Germany, the majority of new cars have traditionally been purchased by customers 45–64 years old. In fact, over the next decade, this key demographic will drop by approximately 2.5 million people, or 10 percent of the current market size.
• The same trend, albeit to a lesser extent, can be seen on a European level (EU27) — even in the most optimistic simulation, the 45-64 age cohort is projected to shrink by at least 2 percent
• Ten years ago, the average car in Germany was around 8.5 years old. Today, the fleet is closer to 10 years old — an increase of 20 percent (Figure 3). The average age of a car in the broader EU is even higher.
• There are growing signs that purchasing power may well decrease further as a larger proportion of real disposable income is allocated to necessities and wages fail to keep up with inflation.

The shift to EVs will likelyshrink the traditional supplier market

• EVs are generally less part-intensive than ICE cars. Total value of the OEM supplier market is likely to fall as the market shifts to EVs.
• Decline of battery prices could give EVs the cost edge
• OEMs should start prioritizing EV-component suppliers, particularly as more traditional suppliers struggle to innovate and remain relevant.
• It’s anticipated that the relative proportions of labor and material will reverse dramatically (Figure 8), forcing OEMs to start moving away from decades of focus on efficiency gains. Instead, the leaders should be focusing on restructuring their existing capabilities and reorganizing their supply networks to remain competitive in the long-run.

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

The financial health of suppliers is deteriorating rapidly

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

Lower production volumes coupled with a forced shift into a lower-value market can put significant pressure on suppliers as they struggle with an uphill battle against revenue decline

• Research suggests the resulting negative free cash flows will lead to a spike in indebtedness.Since 2017, the proportion of suppliers in a ‘bad’ liquidity position rose by 9 percent
• The most recent data shows that about a third of suppliers are in the ‘distress zone’, with a further 34 percent in the ‘grey zone’ of improvement potential.
• The average automotive supplier debt portfolio includes around 49 percent short-term debt (with less than 2 years maturity), 31 percent medium-term debt (maturing in 2–5 years), and around 20 percent long-term debt

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf

Falling battery prices and scale efficiencies can allow EVs to offset inflation

The average price of an ICE passenger car is expected to keep growing through the next decade, mainly driven by price inflation. Yet EVs still have room to maneuver

• The cost of batteries is expected to continue to fall — notwithstanding further supply chain and resource constraints — as a result of not only new technological improvements (such as solid-state batteries), but also from economies of scale.
• The ramp up of EV production should lead to an increase in capacity and new production efficiencies which should further drive down costs
• The introduction of additional entry-segment EV models could further drive down average prices.
• Even taking into account recent geopolitical developments, our conservative estimate suggests EV and ICE vehicles will reach price parity by 2035

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf